RT.com just published a “news” piece, which advertises and promotes George Friedman’s “private CIA” STRATFOR agency as the one that offers and offered “precise predictions.” In part, the RT piece notes that, according to STRATFOR, Russia and Ukraine will reach in 2016 a “common understanding,” will reconcile and settle their conflict, supposedly to the displeasure of the US, but pleasing Germany. To prove Friedman’s and STRATFOR’s validity and reputation, RT mentions Friedman’s 2009 book, The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century, which the article implies predicted the reunion of Crimea with Russia—specifically that “Russia will be restoring its influence and control over the former Soviet republics, recreating a system of buffer zones, which existed in the Soviet period.” The fact is that, in this book, Crimea is mentioned only once (see below). In the book, Friedman does suggest that between 2010-2020 Russia might reabsorb Ukraine as well as Belarus. Russia’s resurgence, which was to start in 2000 is to peak around 2015. However, the article omits Friedman’s main “precise” arguments and predications according to which soon after 2020 Russia is to collapse and be divided—much thanks to its current system and US smart and cunning geopolitical strategies. If RT pretends not to know this, while still advertising and promoting Friedman, STRATFOR as a CIA private affiliation, then RT itself might be rendering itself as a sort of corporate extension of the same system.
First, here is the RT article in the original, followed by actual excerpts from Friedman’s book which RT hailed and declared to be true and precise.
“Согласно прогнозу основателя разведовательно-аналитического агентства STRATFOR Джорджа Фридмана, в 2016 году Украина и Россия помирятся к недовольству США и их союзников, но к радости Германии … получил известность благодаря своим точным предсказаниям. … Москва и Киев придут к взаимопониманию уже в 2016 году, приводит мнение аналитика Джорджа Фридмана издание Huffington Post, которое цитирует в своей статье ИноТВ. В 2009 году, когда Россия пыталась оправиться от рецессии, мало кто смог бы предугадать, что через 5 лет страна воссоединится с Крымом. Впрочем, были и исключения. В 2009 году Джордж Фридман, занимающийся геополитическими прогнозами, опубликовал книгу «Следующие сто лет», в которой указал, что Россия будет восстанавливать своё влияние и контроль над бывшими советскими республиками, воссоздавая систему буферных зон, которая существовала в советские времена.
Тогда, в 2009 году прогноз казался недоступным пониманию, однако сейчас, утверждает автор статьи, это геополитическая реальность. Фридман довольно точно предсказал и другие события, включая экономические проблемы Китая и недавнюю сделку США и Ирана.
огласно прогнозу Фридмана, в 2016 году Россия и Украина придут к некоему — «формальному или нет» — соглашению по конфликту. Структура соглашения пока не ясна, но конфликт будет исчерпан. Американцам и их союзникам этот компромисс придётся не по душе, но Германия будет удовлетворена из-за того, что опасность конфронтации на востоке от её границ будет устранена. Остальная Европа останется безразличной к решению этого кризиса.” Оригинал новости RT на русском:
Here comes George Friedman of STRATFOR:
The one and only mention of Crimea in Friedman’s aforementioned book: “Turkey meanwhile, will move decisively northward into the Caucasus as Russia crumbles. Part of this move will consist of military intervention, and part will occur in the way of political alliances. Equally important, much of Turkey’s influence will be economic— the rest of the region will need to align itself with the new economic power. Turkish influence inevitably will spread northward, beyond the Caucasus into Russia and Ukraine, asserting itself in the politically uncertain Don and Volga river valleys, and eastward toward the agricultural heartland of Russia. Muslim Turkey will influence Muslim Kazakhstan, spreading Turkish power into Central Asia. The Black Sea will be a Turkish lake, and Crimea and Odessa will trade heavily with Turkey. There will be massive Turkish investment throughout this region. Russia will have created a system of alliances to the south of Turkey before its collapse, much as it did during the Cold War. As Russia weakens and withdraws, it will leave behind a belt of instability from the Levant to Afghanistan.” Friedman, George (2009-01-27). The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century (p. 155-6). Knopf Doubleday Publishing Group
“The causes that ignited this confrontation— and the Cold War before it— will impose the same outcome as the Cold War, this time with less effort for the United States. The last confrontation occurred in Central Europe. This one will take place much farther to the east. In the last confrontation China was an ally of Russia, at least in the beginning. In this case China will be out of the game. Last time, Russia was in complete control of the Caucasus, but now it will not be, and it will be facing American and Turkish pressure northward.” Friedman, George (2009-01-27). The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century (p. 119
“The collapse of Russia in the early 2020s will leave Eurasia as a whole in chaos. The Russian Federation itself will crack open as Moscow’s grip shatters. Regions, perhaps even the thinly populated Pacific region, will break away, its interests in the Pacific Basin far outweighing its interest in or connection to Russia proper. Chechnya and the other Muslim regions will break off. Karelia, with close ties to Scandinavia, will secede. Such disintegration will not be confined to Russia. Other countries of the former Soviet Union will fragment as well. The burdens imposed by Moscow will be entirely unsustainable. Where previously the collapse of the Soviet Union led to oligarchs controlling the Russian economy, the collapse of the 2020s will lead to regional leaders going their own way. This disintegration will take place during a period of Chinese regionalism. China’s economic crisis will kick off a regional phase in Chinese history that, during the 2020s, will intensify. The Eurasian landmass east of the Carpathians will become disorganized and chaotic as regions struggle for local political and economic advantage, with uncertain borders and shifting alliances. In fact, fragmentation on both sides of the Chinese border, from Kazakhstan to the Pacific, will start to render the boundaries meaningless. From the United States’ point of view, this will represent a superb outcome. The fifth geopolitical imperative for the United States was that no power be in a position to dominate all of Eurasia. With both China and Russia in chaos, the possibility is more distant than ever. There is, in fact, little need for the United States to even involve itself in maintaining the balance of power inside the region. In the coming decades the balance of power will maintain itself. Eurasia will become a “poacher’s paradise.”” Friedman, George (2009-01-27). The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century (pp. 136-137). Knopf Doubleday Publishing Group
“The Russians saw the events in Ukraine as an attempt by the United States to draw Ukraine into NATO and thereby set the stage for Russian disintegration. Quite frankly, there was some truth to the Russian perception. If the West had succeeded in dominating Ukraine, Russia would have become indefensible. The southern border with Belarus, as well as the southwestern frontier of Russia, would have been wide open. In addition, the distance between Ukraine and western Kazakhstan is only about four hundred miles, and that is the gap through which Russia has been able to project power toward the Caucasus (see map, page 71). We should assume, then, that under these circumstances Russia would have lost its ability to control the Caucasus and would have had to retreat farther north from Chechnya. The Russians would have been abandoning parts of the Russian Federation itself, and Russia’s own southern flank would become highly vulnerable. Russia would have continued to fragment until it returned to its medieval frontiers.” Friedman, George (2009-01-27). The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century (pp. 70-71). Knopf Doubleday Publishing Group.
“In the south, with Ukraine independent, the Russian hold on the Black Sea is tenuous, and it has been forced to the northern extreme of the Caucasus. Afghanistan is occupied, however tentatively, by the Americans, and Russia’s anchor on the Himalayas is gone. If there were an army interested in invading, the Russian Federation is virtually indefensible.” Friedman, George (2009-01-27). The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century (pp. 103-104). Knopf Doubleday Publishing Group
“Ukraine and Belarus are everything to the Russians. If they were to fall into an enemy’s hands— for example, join NATO— Russia would be in mortal danger. Moscow is only a bit over two hundred miles from the Russian border with Belarus, Ukraine less than two hundred miles from Volgograd, formerly Stalingrad. Russia defended against Napoleon and Hitler with depth. Without Belarus and Ukraine, there is no depth, no land to trade for an enemy’s blood. It is, of course, absurd to imagine NATO posing a threat to Russia. But the Russians think in terms of twenty-year cycles, and they know how quickly the absurd becomes possible. They also know that the United States and NATO have systematically expanded their reach by extending membership in NATO to Eastern Europe and the Baltic states. As soon as the United States began trying to recruit Ukraine into NATO, the Russians changed their view both of American intentions and of Ukraine. From the Russian point of view, NATO expanding into Ukraine threatens Russian interests in the same way as if the Warsaw Pact had moved into Mexico. When a pro-Western uprising in 2004— the Orange Revolution— seemed about to sweep Ukraine into NATO, the Russians accused the United States of trying to surround and destroy Russia. What the Americans were thinking is open to debate. That Ukraine in NATO would be potentially devastating to Russian national security is not.” Friedman, George (2009-01-27). The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century (p. 112). Knopf Doubleday Publishing Group