Tuesday, December 23, 2014

On Khodorkovsky and His Opening of Open Russian Maidan Online: Russian Maidan Is the Script and Movie Which No One Is Hacking

Forget Sony's Interview. This is the real thing. Probably also composed by RAND.

Khodorkovsky and the West (the US) is following a tight script, which, for most part, has already been written. And, yes, it does feel like a movie and also like a deja vue, for some of its parts do look much like pieces taken out and adapted from the Maidan script for Ukraine ("pro-European choice," etc.).

The Guardian (a good place for helping out a fake imperial revolution) writes:

"The former tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky ... says he would be ready to lead Russia ...  Khodorkovsky’s statement [came] at the launch of an online movement called Open Russia [did anyone say Soros?] ... “I would not be interested in the idea of becoming president of Russia at a time when the country would be developing normally,” he was quoted as saying  [of course, not, and these are not normal times for sure] ... “But if it appeared necessary to overcome the crisis and to carry out constitutional reform, the essence of which would be to redistribute presidential powers in favour of the judiciary, parliament and civil society, then I would be ready to take on this part of the task.” [Khodorkovsky does know how to use irony--Lavrov has been vocal in calling for some unspecified 'constitutional reform" for Ukraine with the junta in charge; Khodorkovsky is taking the meme from Lavrov and says that it is Russia that needs to do that ... for the sake a regime change and its own Maidan]
Open Russia is intended to unite pro-European Russians in a bid to challenge Putin’s grip on power. “A minority will be influential if it is organised,” Khodorkovsky said during a ceremony broadcast online from Paris. Khodorkovsky and his allies said political change could come quickly and insisted the time had come to think of Russia’s future after Putin. ... his project [is] named after his charity that was shut down after his imprisonment [see it is all just a charity work] ...  Russian activists and prominent emigres including Paris-based economist Sergei Guriyev and London-based businessman Yevgeny Chichvarkin – both of whom fled the country under pressure from security services – joined the online ceremony. ... The former head of the defunct Yukos oil firm sakd all those supporting a pro-European course for Russia should before parliamentary elections scheduled for 2016. [most likely, they will strike sooner] “We support what they call the European choice or a state governed by the rule of law,” he said. “We believe that the statement ‘Russia is not Europe’ is a lie that is being imposed on society on purpose. [recycling slogans from the Ukrainian Maidan] ... “We are Europe, both in terms of geography and culture."
... “It is time to open our mouths,” Chichvarkin said. [the phase of direct mobilization for the Russian Maidan started] “We are ahead of a long, hard and dangerous path,” the former deputy finance minister [in Medvedev's government?] and economist Sergei Aleksashenko said. Russian state media appeared to enforce a blackout on news coverage of Khodorkovky’s project."

When statements like this appear, the automatic reaction of many is to say something along the lines WTF and dismiss it. However, one needs to consider that, in history and even in recent history (starting at least from 1989), unlikely, marginal and even incredible figures and events came to change the assumed givens. For that to happen, other things (other chess moves) would, however, need to happen in conjunction. The West has already invested quite a bit in Khodorkovsky, and, however odious he is, the fact is that he is intelligent and connected. His declarations should, therefore, be read as partial chess moves and signs. But one needs to know how to read the sign first before just dismissing it. In other words, Khodorkovsky by himself and his declarations only don't mean much. However, they are a sign of an unfolding program the other elements of which are certainly coming and coming to emerge. I would say that Khodorkovsky's best bet is making an appeal to a portion of the current Russian political, economic, and cultural elite and the oligarchs in order to split the establishment. In Ukraine (and also in Eastern Europe in 1989) that's what happened. Moreover, both in Ukraine during the Maidan and in Eastern Europe back in 1989, it was not just a mere division and fragmentation of the elite that produced the change. In Kiev, Yanukovich became isolated, betrayed, and surrendered by most of the elite and the oligarchs, including his own administration, the government, and the party, which, however, still I don't think can happen in Russia to that extent. In 1989, most of the elites with only few weak and irrelevant exceptions went over from being pro-Russian communists or "communists" to being pro-US and pro-NATO capitalists and oligarchs.

When it comes to Russia, there are certainly some patriotic oligarchs, but it does sound almost like an oxymoron. Many of them are certainly "Westernized," cosmopolitan, and feel themselves to be part of the new global elite, which does not care much about the people or the country. Like Marx's proletarians, they have no country of their own. But they have been busy buying off properties and palaces not only in Miami, but also in London, in order to buy like the new bourgeoisie recognition and titles, seating tickets at the tables of the global elite.

Khodorkovsky clearly tries to make his pitch chiefly to them--to the oligarchs ... together with the Westernized, liberal middle class. I would then say that both Khodorkovsky and the West are hoping for some palace coup from above with the parts of the pro-Western middle class playing the role of the "people" in order to make it look like a democratic revolution. But as things stand, this would most likely mean a civil war too.

In all this, the critical factor is the security forces. The Maidan would not have been possible without some significant usurpation of these forces and their switch to the other side. The same was required in 1989.

If someone asked to take a guess where the core of the possible oligarchic conspiracy is, I would produce the list of the people who made up the World Economic Forum contact/oligarchic group for Ukraine. It is very likely that the "peace plan" for Ukraine also included and extended to "the peace plan" for Russia as well. For surrendering Novorossiya follows the same logic and the same master plan for surrendering Russia itself.


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