In his recent post copied below, El Murid touches on one of the key questions of questions,
riddles of riddles, and "secret of secrets"--the question about the next
strategic move of Empire in the realization of the plan already
chartered and partially unveiled both by Brzezinski and Friedman of
Stratfor.
Provisionally, conditionally, and roughly, the question can be framed as the question of the Russian Maidan. In this regard, El Murid correctly states that to assume that the next move (or war) will be a repeat of the old is a fallacy, at the same time, it is also true that the past does cast its shadows as well as light over the present and the future and that parallels and analogues are meaningful and so are true lessons of the past. However, El Murid seems to focus primarily on selected "Russian specifics" and leaves aside the strategic objectives of the next (big) moves and the political and class character of the oligarchy and its ruling clique. Moreover, to understand what might be coming, one also needs to be clear about the key objectives of the Ukrainian Maidan. Some of the key objectives can be identified:
1. The cleansing of the Ukrainian elite, oligarchy, power apparatus, police, army, government and state off the pro-Russian faction, that is of those who were incapable of the required anti-Russian animus toward Russia as such. In effect, this means giving power, social mobility, status, and good employment only to the anti-Russian Russians/"Russians" or Ukrainians in Ukraine. Russian oligarchy, inherently already alien and antagonistic to Russia as an idea and Russian interests, has been in this regard already largely advanced, established and, therefore, much in fact indifferent to the defense or even promotion of the true Russian interests in Ukraine. That's why Moscow did very little, if anything, to organize, assist and support pro-Russian Ukrainians in Ukraine during all these years when everyone with some basic mindfulness could see well what has been prepared and financed during all these years. That's also why Moscow had no problem in rushing to recognize the "legitimacy" of anti-Russian Ukraine under Poroshenko and its new anti-Russian regime or in calling them its "esteemed partners."
2. This systematic cleansing of Ukraine off the pro-Russian ethos and elements has further been translated into a wholesale reformatting of the whole government, state, and even society and its key, fundamental structures in order to make this anti-Russian change deeply anchored, dominant and lasting.
3. In this regard, the myth of Putin's patriotism and greatness that works only within Russia and on the part of its trolls and fans abroad (whether enrolled and supported by the Kremlin or Empire), works against Russia and Russian interests in Ukraine--there the faux hypnotic magic does not work, and the nature of Russian oligarchy is seen much naked and therefore sufficiently repulsive (socially radically unjust and corrupt) to be in any way attractive. Russian oligarchy and its ugly naked truth is a key impediment toward any hope for reconciliation or for "winning" the cradle of the Russian statehood back for Russia rather than having it turned into a spear the point of which is just 400 miles away from Moscow itself. Russian oligarchy and its Putinesque regime is thus a key guarantor that Ukraine will stay lost for Russia and be turned into a perfect anti-Russian weapon.
4. Thus, in many ways, the West does not need a Maidan in Russia. Russian oligarchy and its regime are already both objectively and subjectively sufficiently anti-Russian already and much advanced in this respect (the plaque to fascist Mannerheim--compliment of Putin's Kremlin to Leningrad is a telling, perfect symbol of that).
5. However, what the West needs is to restrain the role and cost of the obnoxious middleman, Russian oligarchy, in extracting Russia's resources and wealth, but even more importantly to accomplish disintegration of Russia 2.0 (after disintegration of Russia in the form of the Soviet Union 1.0). For this a good deal of infrastructure in Ekaterinburg and its Yeltsin Center (which is more than just a big building) have already been positioned and developed. This is a task No. 2, for task No. 1 is to manage the process in such a way in which control over Russia's nuclear arsenal and missiles will be secured at least as well as denuclearization of Ukraine was in the 1990s. The challenges are formidable, but doable, through a host of possible simulacra and staged crises or even "revolutions." That is to say, options and possibilities rather abound, especially given the utterly corrupt and collaborationist nature of Russian oligarchy and its regime. In this regard, the betrayals in Donbass and Syria are just warm-ups, as was the handing-over of Eastern Europe or of Yugoslavia to its demise and destruction. To this effect, Putin (or any of the apparent doubles or surrogates) can easily play both a role of a sacrificial "victim" and a role of Russia's General Petain to whom Putin has already descended in many ways anyhow.
6. So far, however, the key war has been economic and financial--with the West keeping effective control over Russia's economic and financial policies through Russia's "independent" Central Bank, Gref, "liberal" economic ministers of Medvedev and Putin, the base of the Russian state, its economic, financial and social tissue is already in a state of well advanced cancer inflicted (like the demise of the Soviet Union and its socialism) from above, by its own "guardians." Economically, the Russian government has been at war with Russia, and its has been a war of attrition. It can now become a swifter and more final war of maneuver.
7. In this light, the easiest and most apparent way toward "Russian Maidan"--the next stage in the dying or murder of the country--could be something as "simple" as a new, much anticipated devaluation of the ruble and the massive halting of payments and wages through Russia, entailing disintegration and rise of local "people's" (but, in actually, fascist or pseudo-fascist) puppet states where Western or NATO intervention could assume a form of "humanitarian relief" and "humanitarian rescue operation" of the selected, vetted beneficiaries.
8. A fall-back option, a standing reserve, is, however, application of the Syrian scenario and experience--some ISIS/al Qaeda led "revolution of national liberation" among the Sunnis in Russia and Central Asia.
9. However, as long as Syria is still resisting and standing, the West still needs Russia to help the West out to do what al Qaeda armies have not fully accomplished yet. And this is also what makes all the pro-Putinist trolls so happy when they present this as a "proof" that Russia is not "isolated." DEFEAT OF SYRIA WOULD MEAN ACTIVATION OF THE RUSSIA/TURN-OFF BUTTON [AS OPPOSED THE "RESET"]. Formerly, Iran was still planned to go before Russia, but given the ongoing crisis in Russia and the fact that more things are becoming too apparent, the time of reckoning planned for Russia for decades now appears to be close, quite ready and within reach.
10. In a way, Marx was right: a country or a system that can't develop, thereby loses its right to exist.
Provisionally, conditionally, and roughly, the question can be framed as the question of the Russian Maidan. In this regard, El Murid correctly states that to assume that the next move (or war) will be a repeat of the old is a fallacy, at the same time, it is also true that the past does cast its shadows as well as light over the present and the future and that parallels and analogues are meaningful and so are true lessons of the past. However, El Murid seems to focus primarily on selected "Russian specifics" and leaves aside the strategic objectives of the next (big) moves and the political and class character of the oligarchy and its ruling clique. Moreover, to understand what might be coming, one also needs to be clear about the key objectives of the Ukrainian Maidan. Some of the key objectives can be identified:
1. The cleansing of the Ukrainian elite, oligarchy, power apparatus, police, army, government and state off the pro-Russian faction, that is of those who were incapable of the required anti-Russian animus toward Russia as such. In effect, this means giving power, social mobility, status, and good employment only to the anti-Russian Russians/"Russians" or Ukrainians in Ukraine. Russian oligarchy, inherently already alien and antagonistic to Russia as an idea and Russian interests, has been in this regard already largely advanced, established and, therefore, much in fact indifferent to the defense or even promotion of the true Russian interests in Ukraine. That's why Moscow did very little, if anything, to organize, assist and support pro-Russian Ukrainians in Ukraine during all these years when everyone with some basic mindfulness could see well what has been prepared and financed during all these years. That's also why Moscow had no problem in rushing to recognize the "legitimacy" of anti-Russian Ukraine under Poroshenko and its new anti-Russian regime or in calling them its "esteemed partners."
2. This systematic cleansing of Ukraine off the pro-Russian ethos and elements has further been translated into a wholesale reformatting of the whole government, state, and even society and its key, fundamental structures in order to make this anti-Russian change deeply anchored, dominant and lasting.
3. In this regard, the myth of Putin's patriotism and greatness that works only within Russia and on the part of its trolls and fans abroad (whether enrolled and supported by the Kremlin or Empire), works against Russia and Russian interests in Ukraine--there the faux hypnotic magic does not work, and the nature of Russian oligarchy is seen much naked and therefore sufficiently repulsive (socially radically unjust and corrupt) to be in any way attractive. Russian oligarchy and its ugly naked truth is a key impediment toward any hope for reconciliation or for "winning" the cradle of the Russian statehood back for Russia rather than having it turned into a spear the point of which is just 400 miles away from Moscow itself. Russian oligarchy and its Putinesque regime is thus a key guarantor that Ukraine will stay lost for Russia and be turned into a perfect anti-Russian weapon.
4. Thus, in many ways, the West does not need a Maidan in Russia. Russian oligarchy and its regime are already both objectively and subjectively sufficiently anti-Russian already and much advanced in this respect (the plaque to fascist Mannerheim--compliment of Putin's Kremlin to Leningrad is a telling, perfect symbol of that).
5. However, what the West needs is to restrain the role and cost of the obnoxious middleman, Russian oligarchy, in extracting Russia's resources and wealth, but even more importantly to accomplish disintegration of Russia 2.0 (after disintegration of Russia in the form of the Soviet Union 1.0). For this a good deal of infrastructure in Ekaterinburg and its Yeltsin Center (which is more than just a big building) have already been positioned and developed. This is a task No. 2, for task No. 1 is to manage the process in such a way in which control over Russia's nuclear arsenal and missiles will be secured at least as well as denuclearization of Ukraine was in the 1990s. The challenges are formidable, but doable, through a host of possible simulacra and staged crises or even "revolutions." That is to say, options and possibilities rather abound, especially given the utterly corrupt and collaborationist nature of Russian oligarchy and its regime. In this regard, the betrayals in Donbass and Syria are just warm-ups, as was the handing-over of Eastern Europe or of Yugoslavia to its demise and destruction. To this effect, Putin (or any of the apparent doubles or surrogates) can easily play both a role of a sacrificial "victim" and a role of Russia's General Petain to whom Putin has already descended in many ways anyhow.
6. So far, however, the key war has been economic and financial--with the West keeping effective control over Russia's economic and financial policies through Russia's "independent" Central Bank, Gref, "liberal" economic ministers of Medvedev and Putin, the base of the Russian state, its economic, financial and social tissue is already in a state of well advanced cancer inflicted (like the demise of the Soviet Union and its socialism) from above, by its own "guardians." Economically, the Russian government has been at war with Russia, and its has been a war of attrition. It can now become a swifter and more final war of maneuver.
7. In this light, the easiest and most apparent way toward "Russian Maidan"--the next stage in the dying or murder of the country--could be something as "simple" as a new, much anticipated devaluation of the ruble and the massive halting of payments and wages through Russia, entailing disintegration and rise of local "people's" (but, in actually, fascist or pseudo-fascist) puppet states where Western or NATO intervention could assume a form of "humanitarian relief" and "humanitarian rescue operation" of the selected, vetted beneficiaries.
8. A fall-back option, a standing reserve, is, however, application of the Syrian scenario and experience--some ISIS/al Qaeda led "revolution of national liberation" among the Sunnis in Russia and Central Asia.
9. However, as long as Syria is still resisting and standing, the West still needs Russia to help the West out to do what al Qaeda armies have not fully accomplished yet. And this is also what makes all the pro-Putinist trolls so happy when they present this as a "proof" that Russia is not "isolated." DEFEAT OF SYRIA WOULD MEAN ACTIVATION OF THE RUSSIA/TURN-OFF BUTTON [AS OPPOSED THE "RESET"]. Formerly, Iran was still planned to go before Russia, but given the ongoing crisis in Russia and the fact that more things are becoming too apparent, the time of reckoning planned for Russia for decades now appears to be close, quite ready and within reach.
10. In a way, Marx was right: a country or a system that can't develop, thereby loses its right to exist.
Версия, которую понесла Комсомольская правда в народ, о том, что найденные у Захарченко миллиарды - это есть черная касса московского/российского Майдана, откровенно говоря, не выдерживает никакой минимальной критики. Скорее, это просто желание дать жареный материал и обеспечить текущую посещаемость/продаваемость тиража. Обычное дело.
Не в пользу выдвинутой версии говорит два ключевых соображения. Первое - никто и ни при каких обстоятельствах не будет держать крупную сумму, предназначенную для оперативного использования, в одном месте. Это а)нецелесообразно (просто потому, что если накроют - все мероприятие закрывается), б) оперативное использование означает наличие программ и структур, которые подлежат финансированию, а потому деньги сразу должны распределяться по конкретным руководителям таких программ. Это азы любой самой примитивной конспирации, странно, что перед написанием сенсации пишущий не поставил себя хотя бы на секунду на место тех, о ком он пишет.
Крупные суммы хранятся в одном месте как раз для хранения.
Есть возражение - Захарченко - не единственный, потому версия имеет право на существование. И тоже возражение на возражение. Такое крупное по всем меркам мероприятие, как киевский майдан, финансировалось из расчета приблизительно 20 млн долларов в неделю. Найденная у Захарченко сумма в 120 млн достаточна для финансирования киевского майдана на протяжении полутора месяцев. Но вся закавыка в том, что для России киевский сценарий вообще неприменим. В принципе. А потому 120 млн - сумма неимоверно избыточная для такого действия.
Здесь мы автоматически переходим ко второму соображению. А вообще - кто сказал, что в России в принципе будет реализовываться сценарий Майдана? Весь опыт российских аналогичных событий говорит, что у нас все происходит совершенно иначе, и те, кто грозно пытается бороться с Майданом, либо борются с фантомом, либо просто дружно пилят выделенные на эту борьбу средства.
Дважды в России (в 91 и 93) происходили события, чем-то напоминающие Майдан. Но только чем-то. Сидение (дважды) в Белом доме отличалось от Майдана главным - продолжительностью процесса. Кроме того, сугубо уличные волнения вроде беспорядков на Манежке в 2010 или бунта в Чертаново - тоже имели крайне ограниченный срок действия. У нас были попытки организовывать продолжительные мероприятия типа #ОккупайАбай, но все они были слишком опереточными и флеш-мобными для того, чтобы относиться к ним всерьез.
Говоря иначе, в России нет ни опыта, ни соответствующей инфраструктуры для проведения масштабных и продолжительных мероприятий типа Майдана, а именно масштаб и продолжительность являются ключевыми параметрами киевских событий. Они позволили неумолимо и последовательно расшатать обстановку и довести ее до предела устойчивости.
Цель любого такого мероприятия как раз и заключается в нащупывании этого предела и подвода ситуации к нему и за его грань - после чего власть утрачивает волю и способность к сопротивлению.
Я полагаю, что в конкретных российских условиях сценарий Майдана вообще нереализуем. В наших условиях, если что и будет происходить, оно будет предельно кратким по продолжительности (два-три дня - максимум неделя) и должно сопровождаться несколькими предельно важными условиями.
Первое условие - должен отсутствовать по самым разным причинам руководитель страны. Болен, арестован, недееспособен или находится вне зоны доступа. Только при таком условии можно рассчитывать на лояльность заговорщикам хотя бы части вертикали управления. Без удаления первого лица никто и пальцем не пошевелит. Опыт 91 года и 93 говорит именно об этом.
Второе условие - все должно быть решено в предельно сжатые сроки. Просто потому, что страна большая, очень неоднородная, держится исключительно на вертикали управления, так как все остальные механизмы скрепления страны в единое целое ликвидированы самим Путиным и его камарильей, и вероятность распада в случае продолжительной смуты в Москве возрастает с каждым днем. Опять же - напомню события 91 года. Именно путч в Москве стал причиной мгновенного парада суверенитетов в союзных республиках. Который затем быстро привел к юридическому оформлению распада страны потому, что возможностей возвращать "все взад" уже не было.
Все это говорит о том, что любые события, под которыми понимается некий мифический Майдан, для своего успешного проведения должны быть проведены вначале кулуарно и под ковром, а массовку выгонят на улицу лишь для медийной картинки. День-два побить витрины и пожечь машины, после чего им предъявят нового Спасителя Нации и выдадут на расправу десяток-другой Врагов Народа.
В таком сценарии опять же - Майдан в киевском исполнении не нужен. Все решится до него. А значит - 120 миллионов долларов на флеш-моб такого незначительного уровня тем более избыточны.
Переворот в России возможен - факт. Но по сугубо российскому сценарию, который принципиально не способен повторять киевский. А потому бороться с тенью киевского Майдана в Москве - сущий бред. И искать эту тень - тоже.
Хотя тираж - дело святое. Для него можно написать что угодно, да.
http://redironnights.blogspot.ru/2016/09/blog-post_46.htmlВерсия, которую понесла Комсомольская правда в народ , о том, что найденные у Захарченко миллиарды - это есть черная касса…el-murid.livejournal.com
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