Monday, March 21, 2016

Putin's Withdrawal of His Main Airspace Force from Syria: Imperatore Napoleon Interromputa

Question: What does a bad dog do when he sees you running away? 
Putin: But didn't I leave behind me other people there? 

"We are pulling out so that we might immediately return as we could do and did not do during the whole first 4 years of the war in Syria. For everything in the world is easily reversible. We guarantee it."

The said above provides but a backdrop for the new fantastic gradation in Putinist worship:

1. Sending a military force to Syria four and half years after the war on Syria started: "wise and supreme."
2. Pulling out his most of the force, as demanded by the US, the takfiri, and al Qaeda: "even wiser and even more supreme."
3. Putin's PR, hollow promise to reverse the pullout and his decision: "the wisest and most supreme of all."

V. Putin ordered the cessation of the Russian military operation in Syria "suddenly" on March 14 with the immediate beginning of the withdrawal of the bulk of the Russian Air Force the very next day.

According to Kremlin propaganda, the Russian "mission in Syria is now accomplished," Putin's genius has been affirmed, and the Russian forces will be withdrawn.

During the announcement of his "triumphant" withdrawal from Syria, after he upgraded the CIA-run heart-eating "FSA" allies of al Qaeda to "moderate and patriotic opposition," which need to be part of a new transitional government under UN SB Resolution 2254 jointly introduced and sanctioned by the US and Russia, Putin looked shifty, scared and dispersed.

Much like a cheater or a thief about being caught or in being caught who, hearkening back to the childhood days, is trying at least to hold on to that old, primitive notion that the more one blinks, looks down and away, the more he can still enjoy the last bits of camouflage, invisibility, and denial.

Of course, knows that he is stabbing Assad into the back and that he has also thus used the Russian forces mainly just for the show. But he also knows that this is not all. He also needs to deliver the rest of Donbass and that, the way he is pushing Russia into an abyss, will soon be obvious to ever more and more people. He has assurances and reassurances from the Americans that they would help him out, but the remaining part of his mafia and KGB instincts and the remnant of common sense are still making him very uneasy and afraid.

This is not a face of a charismatic czar or even of a victorious general. It is a face of a lying man in the moment when his pants are down.

Putin is at least clear that the withdrawal does mean withdrawal of "the MAIN part" of the force that was deployed there for the operation last Fall: "I feel that the objective set before the Defense Ministry and the Armed Forces is generally fulfilled, so I order the Defense Ministry to begin withdrawing the MAIN PART of our military group from the Syrian Arab Republic beginning tomorrow." 

Putin: "Main objectives have been accomplished." Lavrov emphasizes one above all to Putin. According to Lavrov, the Russian military operation persuaded the Syrian government (clearly "part of ALL OUR partners") to change their position and agree on "an intra-Syrian dialogue" with the militant groups supported by the US, the Saudis and Turkey.

"We have consistently advocated establishing an intra-Syrian dialogue in accordance with the decisions made in 2012. Our suggestions were met with a lack of will on the part of all our partners working on this process. But since the start of the operations by our Aerospace Forces, the situation began to change."

Putin also hopes that Russian withdrawal will "significantly lift trust" of "all" parties to the war, hence including the FSA and other allies of the anti-Syrian formations: "I hope that today’s decision will be a good signal for all conflicting sides. I hope that this will significantly lift the level of trust between all participants in the Syrian peace process and promote resolving the Syrian issue via peaceful means." Putin makes it look as if continuation of the Russian operation was detrimental to "Lifting trust" of the anti-Assad and anti-Syrian forces. 

Al Qaeda and ISIS got the memo that Russia is pulling out too. So did Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The Syrian government is now officially not allowed to fight officially "moderate and patriotic opposition" supported by the US. 

Also remember that the US and Russia imposed on Syria the "peace plan" that demands a new government. And also a new constitution and new elections, which the US needs to approve.

All what was needed was for Russia to accept and support the US "peace plan" and the "ceasefire" which stopped the SAA Aleppo offensive. Everything goes according to the plan. The US plan.
In announcing the withdrawal (with someone dubbing it withdrawing "the surplus" of Russian military personnel), Putin made sure not to even mention ISIS and the importance of continued struggle against ISIS, which was supposed to be exempted from the "ceasefire." This cannot be overemphasized.

In his statement on Russia's withdrawal from Syria,Putin was careful not to even mention the initial "reason"—ISIS.

Dmitry Peskov claimed on the same day (March 14) that Putin's decision to stop Russia's military operation in Syria and to initiate withdrawal was not consulted with the US or the West. Lavrov proved Peskov (inadvertently wrong): "Thanks to these decisions, including YOUR LATEST AGREEMENT with President Obama, TODAY, intra-Syrian talks between the Government delegation and delegations of multiple opposition groups have finally been launched in Geneva." Lavrov made this unguarded, but somewhat boastful disclosure during Putin's announcement of his decision.

Another Lavrov's neo-colonialist sleight-of-hand position came out when discussing with Putin the Russian withdrawal from Syria: "An international Syria support group was created, which included all the key players without exception, including regional powers." Lavrov's "all the key players without exception" exclude the Syrian government, and I don't think that Iran is part of it either.
Putin's second try at explaining his idea of the "mission accomplished" (copyrighted by George W. Bush). The five months long military action in Syria achieved "the most important thing"--it "established [Moscow's] POSITIVE cooperation with [anti-Assad] opposition forces in Syria."

Let's give Putin's claim some thought. Clearly, by "opposition forces" with which he claims to have established "positive cooperation"--plausibly by bombing them--Putin cannot mean ISIS or al Qaeda, al Nusra. That leaves the CIA-run FSA, close allies of al Nusra, which, indeed, soon after Russian action in Syria began, Putin and Lavrov started relabeling as "moderate, "patriotic," "democratic" and "healthy." However, the problem, which anyone familiar with the Syrian war and its realities knows, is that the FSA and other nominally non-Qaeda death brigades are and remain fiercely anti-Russian, and the fact that 80% of Russian attacks were directed on them and not on ISIS has only reinforced them as devout, zealous enemies of Russia. But, on Putin's part, this is by no stretch the first time he calls Russia's enemies his partners, friends, and even allies. On a number of occasions he called the fascist, anti-Russian junta in Kiev, the organizers and perpetrators of the Odessa massacre, his "partners and even friends," and Lavrov called them a month after the Odessa massacre "Ukraine's best chance."

This leaves the only opposition force, with which Putin might have somewhat improved his cooperation, the Kurds who, like Lavrov before he seemingly flipped again, welcome Syria's "federalization." On this front, indeed, partially and to some limited extent, Putin's claim is somewhat correct. However, his partners, the US and its allies, refused the Kurds a place at the table of the Geneva talks, which, as demanded both by Russia and the US, should produce a new "Syrian government" (UN SB 2254).

So, speaking of the forces inside Syria, Putin's "most important" achievement, his bragging of having established "positive cooperation" with anti-Assad forces is mainly false and hollow. But don't despair too soon! This still leaves outside players and parties.

And what do we see here? That's beginning from last September (at least)--and as far as public contacts are concerned, the current stage of Russia's Syrian policy is marked and defined by the deal struck with the US, the result of which was a series of jointly drafted and supported UN Security Council Resolutions on Syria (without Syria) and the current "peace plan" authored by the US, its allies, and co-sponsored and supported by Russia as well. The bottom, take-home point is that Putin does evidently believe that he has struck an agreement and understanding, a deal of sorts, with the US, which he cannot and could not refuse.

It took Putin's government almost five years of the vicious terror onslaught of the international coalition relying on ISIS and al Qaeda against Syria before consenting to send to the Syrian government a limited quantity of more advanced tanks. It took also nearly as much time for Putin to come up with a ingeniously new way of fighting wars: you jump in for several months, declare a splendid victory by signing on the plan of the US, which organized the destruction of that country, and then, after these 5 months of the limited military operation, you go back to what you have been doing anyway--driving the Russian economy down to an abyss while squeezing all you can still squeeze out of the increasingly impoverished population in order to feed the clique of your vulgar oligarchic buddies and cronies.

Putin bombed for several months in Syria, then he (the US) decided that it's enough ("Mission Accomplished") and out--if the war keeps going on, as it was already in its fifth year before, then too bad for the war. Putin showed his machismo and his potency was calibrated and potent to last only for a limited time. Had Stalin had the character, intellect, and moral qualities of Putin, Petain, the Petit, he would have fought World War II in the same way. He would have gotten in just for a while and then he would also quickly pulled out, thus, as Putin's fans assure us, he would have totally disoriented and dumbfounded his adversaries, even the mighty Wehrmacht itself.
Top of Form

ISIS used to be Russia's vital threat till yesterday when Putin announced that he is withdrawing his combat troops from Syria. Now he trusts his Western partners to finish the job. Russia's forces leaving Syria is also leaving ISIS where ISIS was basically before the operation started—with rather smaller, tactical, not strategic corrections.

After the obligatory and already automatically conditioned celebration of yet another Putin's fictitious victory and his fictitious genius by his fans (paid and unpaid, also start seeing that the impious worship is very quickly turning into propagation of the division and split of Syria. See my previous post.
So why did Putin ostensibly "surprisingly" order the cessation of military operations in Syria and the withdrawal of most of his forces? 

It is possible to identify some of the main reasons:

1. Already in the Fall, the Kremlin started calling the FSA and the US-supported militants "patriotic," "healthy" and "moderate" opposition. Once you say, then bombing them flies against what you say. Sooner or later one side of this contradiction has to give in.
2. Ever since Kerry paid a visit to Putin in Moscow last year, where Putin suddenly started looking like a girl invited for her first date, the US sealed with Russia its old new "peace plan" which was then fleshed out in a series of the UN SB Resolutions and the new Geneva talks to which the main groups supported and armed by the US and its allies were invited--minus the Kurds--as a legitimate partner in a new Syrian government to be formed with them, as prescribed by the US and Russia and their initiated UN SB 2554. This makes it still harder to bomb someone whom you legitimize, call now "patriotic" and "healthy" and want to be part of Syria's new government and regime.
3. If the Kremlin might be rather insensitive to cognitive dissonance, contradictions, and discrepancies (and hypocrisies), then the US, its allies and all these moderate terror brigades began actually demanding very directly and openly what Putin delivered to them as a gift finally on March 14, just less than a week before the Geneva talks. A simple google search will shows a plenty of evidence of this very fact. So, for example:

"US demands Russia stop bombing Syria's opposition after peace talks suspended in Geneva," 4 Feb 2016,…/us-demands-russia-stop-syri…/7142104

February 4, 2016:: " Russian airstrikes threaten Syria peace talks, opposition says; Representatives refuse to attend meeting with UN envoy in Geneva and demand action to stop ‘indiscriminate bombing ... The opposition statement echoed comments by the British foreign secretary, Philip Hammond, who lambasted the Russians for undermining the peace talks. 'We are receiving reports of a massive acceleration of Russian and regime military aggression on Aleppo and Homs ...'"…/10-billion-in-aid-pledg…/1421454590199/

February 4, 2016: "U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called on Russia to end airstrikes on Syria as world leaders gathered together in London on Thursday ..."…/10-billion-in-aid-pledg…/1421454590199/

February, 20, 2016: "Syria's opposition has agreed to a two- to three-week truce on condition that Russia stops its air strikes ...."…/Syrian-opposition-agrees-to-2-3-week…

The militants and its Western backers were adamant and persistent. Before caving in, Lavrov still tried to put up a bit of rear-guard resistance--on March 2:

"Russia will not stop its bombing campaign in Syria until all "terrorist" groups in the country are destroyed, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday.

"Russian strikes will not cease until we really defeat terrorist organizations like the (al-Nusra Front]," Lavrov declared to a news conference in the Omani capital Muscat, according to Reuters and Interfax.

"I don't see why these air strikes should be stopped," he added.

Lavrov went on to address the Syrian opposition’s demand that Russia relent its bombing campaign as a "precondition" for talks, arguing that it was quite "shortsighted" of them to expect that preconditions "set in the forms of ultimatums, can resolve problems."

In its efforts to bolster its ally in Damascus, the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, Russian air power has been bombing various armed groups across the country opposed to Assad, many of them Islamist groups, including ISIS and Nusra."

Less than two weeks later, Putin budged, and a meme was launched that Putin's decision "took all by surprise"--including those who were pushing Russia to do just that.

Not a long time ago, Lavrov was assuring everyone that Russia would not withdraw its forces from Syria "until they achieve real victory over ISIS, al Nusra and other terrorist groups," which, today in his announcement, Putin did not even mention as a factor.

Bottom line: Both al Qaeda and ISIS rejoice at Russia's pull-out and are relieved. Much like other enemies of Syria none of whom is contemplating any pull-out even as a hypothetical option. Thus, we have a situation where both Putinists and the takfiri/al Qaeda/ISIS are in celebration over Putin's withdrawal.
Fascist Ukraine hails Putin’s decision as well. All the UN SC members (just like Putinists), thus incl the US, GB, as well as Ukraine!, see "positively" Putin's withdrawal from Syria

Putin's announcement of withdrawing most of his forces from Syria b/4 Geneva "talks" even started open more options for Syria's enemies.

Putin: the less of Russian military help to the Syrian government, the more "peace process" will be facilitated.

There is also thing pressing angle seemingly dropped off completely:
On February 29, just two weeks prior to it, a radicalized woman from Central Asia beheaded a 4-year girl in Moscow and was walking with her head in Moscow by the subway. She claimed that she did it because of Putin's actions in Syria.

Did ISIS or al Qaeda threaten to use and activate more "nannies" or terrorists like this in Moscow?
It is clear that the beginning of the Russian withdrawal and the cessation of its combat operations in Syria as of tomorrow and the announcement of it made just barely a day before that were made with a view to the beginning of the Geneva "talks" on Syria, which are due this coming Monday and which are to produce a new Syrian government in the place of the existing one by June--in accordance with the "joint" US-Russian agreement turned into UN SB Resolution 2254, made without the Syrian government.

Since a good deal of strategizing and efforts went into "saving Obama's face," as Russian sources put it, by subscribing to the US plan, it is also evident that the US needed and wanted the cessation of Russian operations in Syria by the time the "talks" are to begin so that the factor of Russian open involvement on the side of the Syrian government is taken off the table.

Therefore, the obvious thing is that, to understand better the forces, reasons, motives, and interests behind the supposedly "surprising" move by Putin, one only needs to look back Resolution 2254, back to the meeting between Putin and Kerry in Moscow and the previous brief, but important meetings between Obama and Putin.

Here is my posting from yesterday (noon), which was a repost of a Russian article, which was announcing Russia's withdrawal from Syria one day before, according to Putinists, Putin masterfully "surprised" everyone with his "surprising" decision to bring Russian jets from Syria home--or the "main" force or "most" of it:;
Igor Strelkov on Putin's pullout from Syria and Donbass (which the Russian media ignores):
1. The way Putin announced the withdrawal and the way it has been organized has all the marks of a hastily made decision, which bears a signature of an ultimatum made by the US to Putin.
2. The evacuation of the Russian force from Syria is a "tactical defeat."
3. However, Strelkov himself was and continues to be convinced that, after letting the war destroy so much of Syria for so long, the Russian action in Syria was only a result of the US trying to make Russia dissipate and counter-productively tie its forces and resources.

Here below are links and zoomable maps that show the situation on the ground at the beginning of Putin's brief in and out macho exercise in Syria, meant to allow him to relabel al Qaeda allies as "moderate patriots" and to help the US turn their regime change plane into a series of UN Security Council resolutions.

The maps have a better resolution than the two posted from a Russian site, which has now been widely used. Moreover, they also allow zooming, thus further enlarging and greater detail:

The two maps show the extent and effect of Putin's limited and waaaayyyy belated, but short-lived military help in Syria--the first shows the situation on the ground at the beginning of the operation and the second map reflects the situation as of one day before Putin announced his withdrawal. Neither of the maps however shows all the worms and guts of the "great bargain" struck by Putin with Obama--like the jointly (US-Russian) demand for a new transitional government in Syria, new elections, a new constitution, a possible partitioning/breakup of the country, and Kremlin's relabeling of the CIA's FSA heart-eaters as "moderate" and "patriotic opposition" etc.

The greatest territorial gain during the five months of the Russian operation in Syria was achieved by the Kurds-led alliance in eastern Syria (SDF). See the map. And this gain is only partially and indirectly due to the Russian operation.

"Putin is pulling out of Syria because he can immediately move back if he wanted to." Is it why he did not bother to help for 4 and half years of the war of Syria against the terror international coalition because he could have done at any moment? Compare the situation on the ground in September of 2014 (three and half years into the war with the situation in September of 2015 when Putin sent in his limited contingent. And he pulled out with a situation only slightly improved, but with no larger town liberated). Moreover, sending the military few thousand miles away is not actually that simple, and, politically, it is not that simple either. It is not a turn-key operation. Of course, hypothetically or theoretically, Putin could do the right thing and make wise decisions any moment he might want to--provided that he wants to do that and provided that he can. But he could not even stop the fascists coming to power in Kiev and to establish their rule there over millions of the Russians by the 70th anniversary of the Soviet Victory over fascism in World War II. The best he was able and willing to do was to allow one third of Donbass to become a Hobbesian reservation for the Russians in Ukraine and to sign Minsk deals with the junta committing him to returning even this part of resisting Donbass back to the fascists to whom he transferred billions in oil and gas discounts and bank loans, which the fascists will never pay back.

Putin can reverse the decision he made--if only he could reverse or utterly change himself into someone else. " The decision was great because ... he can undo it and reverse it any time … any time he can become what he is not, can’t he?

In his article much named after the article by Mary Shabbiha Woodward with some of my humble input, Andrew Korybko offers one good piece of information, which effectively and possibly inadvertently rebuts one key piece of the PR Putinist machine, his own camp, so to speak. It is the claim that Putin's pullout from Syria caught the West and Washington by surprise. Now, Korybko affirms the obvious--that the decision is part of the US-Russian behind-closed-doors deal:

"There are concrete reasons to believe that Russia and the US may have reached some sort of gentlemen’s agreement behind closed doors, with the clearest indication of this being Lavrov’s major announcement on Monday afternoon that Russia is ready to coordinate its actions with the US in liberating Raqqa, which importantly was made just hours before Putin declared the headline-grabbing military drawdown. Having proven the existence of secret Russian-US diplomacy over Syria (as evidenced by Lavrov’s aforementioned surprise announcement) ..."

As far as I am concerned, this one honest admission makes the otherwise PR piece laudable and valuable.

On the other side of the scales, the most blatant lie of the article is this one: "Washington was [is] sincere in selling out Ankara’s interests for its own grand geopolitical benefit."

The US has built Turkish and Erdogan's interests into its strategy from the beginning. And the US has done so to a great extent and has been doing so rather effectively--from the point of view of its own objectives, strategy, and interests. "To a great extent" does not, of course, mean 100%--but the coordination is working and significant. In fact, without Turkey's role, the US strategy would be missing one of its key legs in Syria.

Read more:

Oh, I just also remembered that it was actually me who spotted Lavrov's disclosure about the pre-agreement or deal with the US on this, which most likely Lavrov was supposed to disclose and if he did then it was not supposed to have noticed and noted. I do believe he called us anti-Syrian and anti-Russian just several days ago. Verifiable by my first FB reactions to Putin’s withdrawal announcement.
What is "good" about Russian withdrawal according to Iran--that Russia does not intend to impose the joined US-Russia-imposed "ceasefire" by force (and what about the US?):

"Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif Zarif is welcoming Russia's decision to begin withdrawing forces from Syria, where a fragile cease-fire is holding. "The fact that Russia announced that it is withdrawing part of its forces indicates that they don't see an imminent need to resort to force in maintaining the cease-fire," Zarif said during a speech at the Australian National University, in Canberra. "That in and of itself should be a positive sign. Now we have to wait and see."

Russian TV: 1) RF action in Syria was "wasteful"; 2) RF only wanted more respect and got it; 3) Assad is the problem.

Among the Russian commentators, El Murid keeps his sharpness and integrity, and his comments on Putin's withdrawal from Syria are spot-on:

Анатолий Несмиян, политолог, писатель, автор книг по ситуации на Ближнем Востоке:
Это как с Афганистаном. Один из наших генералов сказал, что мы в Афганистане сделали две ошибки: первая, что мы в него вошли, вторая — что мы вышли. Вот в Сирии абсолютно аналогичная история. Наша первая ошибка в том, что мы вошли в 2015 году — если что-то делать, то делать надо было не позже 2012 года. И уж тем более странно, что мы вышли именно сейчас.

Испытание на прочность. Будет ли мир в Сирии?
Сейчас только Башар Асад начинает очень тяжёлые переговоры, и вывод наших войск фактически подрывает его позицию на этих переговорах. Так что, откровенно говоря, это решение вызывает только недоумение во всех смыслах.
Последствия у этого шага могут быть тяжёлыми, потому что сейчас речь идёт о федерализации Сирии, то есть следовании иракскому сценарию, когда эта страна была разбита на отдельные территории под управлением суннитов, шиитов и курдов. В Сирии предлагается сделать то же самое, Асад категорически против. МИД Сирии буквально вчера выступил категорически против этого. Но Сергей Лавров в очередной раз подчеркнул, что это внутреннее дело сирийцев — как они решат, так и будет. Если на фоне всего этого выводятся наши войска, то, скорее всего, Асад согласится на эту федерализацию, и ничего хорошего из этого не получится.

Al-Monitor: "The decision to partly withdraw from Syria... is likely to put pressure on the Assad regime to negotiate more seriously at UN-hosted peace talks with the opposition, which resumed in Geneva on March 14."

Associated Press: "[The] pullout order from Putin [is] a step that raised hopes for progress at newly reconvened U.N.-brokered peace talks in Geneva.” The lesser presence Russia has in Syria, the better it is we are told, both by the West and the Putinists, for ending the war in Syria and the more "successful" the talks in Geneva would be. Evidently, no one is suggesting anything similar about any of the supporters and members of the broad anti-Syrian regime change alliance or any hypothetical pull-out of any of them. For them, the war and the campaign is on. (
Emir of Qatar, a new Middle East superpower, "congratulated Putin on the pullout of his troops from Syria."

“Эмир Катара позвонил Путину, поблагодарил за "усилия по нормализации обстановки в Сирии" и вывод войск”

Little note to the Putinists: No one else ... no one else is pulling out of Syria except for Putin with "the main part" of his forces.
Hard to stay sober with too much of Kremlin's spin on Putin's decision to bring back the Russian force sent to Syria.

Alexander Martynov, Dicrector of the Institute of Newer [sic] Countries: "Thanks God! [The result is that] peace is now coming to the Middle East!" But he also confirms that the withdrawal concerns above all the Russian Air Force that was sent to Syria: "Речь идёт о выводе основной части группировки, имеются в виду части ВКС с территории Сирии."

Алексей Мартынов, директор Института новейших стран, политолог: "Слава богу, на Ближнем Востоке наступает мир."

One of the early or rather very first spins on Putin’s decision was a claim that Russian withdrawal of "main forces" from Syria concerned "only the ground troops." Well, the troub;e was these ground forces were not officially there to begin with. Soon, this too was exposed as a lie and spin. Al-Masdar News on Twitter…

Kremlin propagandists' best spins:

1. The best thing that can be said about the withdrawal from Syria (no more direct military support for the SAA fighting the evil alliance for the last five years) is that the withdrawal was "thought out in advance." It was not a decision made in the split of a second.
2. The "best" critique of the criticism of the decision: criticism of the withdrawal, which objectively weakens the ally, is "anti-Syrian." It is thus "pro-Syrian" to hail and support the withdrawal and use this as yet another (convenient) opportunity to extol the wisdom and unmatched craftiness of Putin.

Amusing spins: "We are withdrawing from Syria, but, in exchange, Lavrov will 'double up' on what he has been doing for the last five years of the conflict." And "we are withdrawing for "assuredly we can [theoretically] always return."

"And those who criticize the withdrawal are merely using this as a convenient moment in repeating what they have been consistently saying for a long time now. Unlike them, we are truthfully inconsistent in our political analyses--except for one consistency--no matter what Putin says or does, he is to be believed and adored."

Another great spin on Putin's withdrawal from Syria: "We are withdrawing. But if the ceasefire is violated [as it has been and continues to be], then we are withdrawing only to come back and then in earnest and we will destroy them all and fulfill the goals, which have already been fulfilled, in earnest and fully!"
Another spin on Putin's withdrawal from Syria: "It is a great diplomatic maneuver, which will [surely] deprive the West of the possibility to accuse Russia of contributing to intractability [possible unyielding] of the Damascus authorities." See, we have abandoned them, did not we? If the Syrian government remains firm, we [the Kremlin] have nothing to do with it! We left them on their own!

Kremlin propagandist: "Relax! Putin announced withdrawal from Syria, but withdrawing is not withdrawing ... because Russia still wants to keep its two military bases there. For now. There is just no need to keep supporting militarily the Syrian Arab Army, as Russia did for the last several months, and there is even no need now to keep bombing either the 'patriotic opposition,' which Russia wants to see to be part of the new government, or ISIS, which, according to trolls, has already been decimated for good."

A Russian blogger takes apart all the main stupefying memes about Putin's yet another "clever, cunning" move, this time in Syria--Хитрый план для Сирии:
Moscow was rushing in to fine tune its spin on the withdrawal. The meme is now--the withdrawal declared by Putin is not really a withdrawal--what is is what is not. Mainly because, for now, Russia is keeping its military bases in Syria, including the one newly obtained in Latakia, which began to be used as a meeting venue for the anti-government militant opposition.
Apologists for the Russian cessation of the military operation amidst as the faux--ceasefire (as false and phony as that one in Donbass) make it appear that the preservation of the Russian base in Tartus was the main objective and a main argument for saying that when Putin said "withdrawal" he did not mean what he said.

The new, evolving spins by Kremlin experts now also include the following:
A. Khramchikin, director of of the Center for Military and Political Analysis: "The main goal, which Putin pursued before the beginning of the operation in Syria, was about [his] image ... This goal has been achieved." The goal was PR. Now it will take more PR to save this PR (Pyrrhic) "victory."

"Главная цель Путина, которую он преследовал перед началом военной операции в Сирии, была имиджевой — заставить Запад говорить с собой на равных, считает заместитель директора Института политического и военного анализа Анатолий Храмчихин. «Эта цель выполнена

On the day of Putin’s withdrawal announcement, Sputnik contributed this to the common cause:
Kremlin's PR outlet Sputnik sent out this important trial balloon with this transparent leading and heavily loaded question: "As world leaders meet in Geneva for a new round of ‪#‎SyriaTalks , LET'S DISCUSS the possibility that ‪#‎Syria could BE SPLIT into three separate mini states. ‪#‎SyriaCrisis"

On the same day, Radio Sputnik also allowed itself to hear political analyst Hafsa Kara-Mustapha on "the possibility that Syria could be split into three separate mini states" (that's Sputnik talking), now Kara-Mustapha:

"I think this is going to attempt, at the very least, to usher in a new leadership," referring to Syrian peace talks taking place in Geneva on Monday. "The whole point behind it is actually to render the [Syrian President Bashar al-] Assad leadership null and void. ... On this occasion, [the Syrian opposition] seem[s] to be quite willing to participate. But of course the willingness is because the international community seems to be heading toward removing or sidelining Bashar al-Assad. This goes hand-in-hand with the federalization project, which is to leave him encircled in a very, very restricted part of Syria and then carve up the rest of the country amongst all the other parties. ... The Syrian people have no say in this. Syrian opinion polls have consistently indicated that Bashar al-Assad is popular amongst an overwhelming majority of Syrians. But that is completely sidelined, and all we’re hearing from the international media and international governments is that Assad must go, despite what Syrians are saying."

Sputnik (unveiling a piece of the deal from behind the doors here): "A partition [sic!] of Syria would likely include a semi-autonomous region for Syrian Kurds, but it remains unclear whether Turkey would support such a state on its border."

Kara-Mustapha:"Federalization would be a semi-victory because it would be a defeat for Bashar al-Assad, a major loss of his [his???] territory. ... I think whichever way you look at it, it’s very, very detrimental and it will spell the end of the Syrian nation as we know it."
Russians react to Putin's announced withdrawal from Syria to begin tomorrow, and they are reminded of Donbass and Minsk. Of course, Putin's claim that "goals were achieved" (even the officially stated ones) is just a lie, and a very flat-footed one. Or just lame

El Murid: Россия не является субъектом мировой и региональной политики. Об этом, в частности, сказал на днях Обама, сформулировав это так, что Путин не участвует в выработке повестки. Сказанное им означает, что Россия действует исключительно в рамках чужих планов. На подхвате. Ничего удивительного - у колонии нет своей политики. Ну, а что скажут в телевизоре, это неважно. В конце концов, это его работа - внушать бодрость и чувство гордости. Уже сейчас политологи соревнуются в объяснении очередного изгиба генеральной линии. Лично я в них верю - они справятся.

El Murid on one of the key political implications of Russia's announced withdrawal from Syria--it is undermining the negotiating positions of the Syrian government for no Syria's enemies are withdrawing or ending the war of regime change: "Уход России в ходе переговоров Асада с оппозицией фактически подрывает позиции сирийского правительства на этих переговорах. Но это никого не беспокоит - в конце концов, что нам какой-то Асад?"

Leading Russian political analyst Stepan Sulashkin offers a masterful appraisal of Putin's withdrawal from Syria:

With Syria's withdrawal, Putin has demonstrated yet again (after so many times) that one of Russia's "principal" policies since the late 1980s has been ditching and selling out its allies, thus running out of 99% of them. And it is not exactly a consolation that the Russian colonial regime is treating the Russians in a very similar way. Russia today has been reduced to a Potemkin village turned into a Potemkin country and a colony ruled by a dose of PR and with the help of local frauds, liars, thieves, defectors, and merchants--zhalkih torgovcev. 

The Soviet Union survived the invasion by Nazi Germany, but it did not survive the revenge at the hands of its immoral guardians and bureaucrats.

But now it is also clear that the further existence of Russia and its oligarchic mafia is mutually incompatible as well.

The Russian withdrawal from Syria, with no strategic goals achieved on the ground, and, politically, with the Kremlin only joining the US in the demand that Syria change its constitution and have a new "transitional government" which would include US and Saudi-backed allies of al Qaeda, dabbed by Moscow now as "patriotic opposition," the writing is on the wall that Obama placed in front of the Russian vicars in the Kremlin a clear road map of things to do before he leaves office or, better yet, before the US November elections. And Putin and the Russian government are trying their best to oblige, while tasking their PR goons to keep inventing ever new "triumphs" of the day, while pushing the country down the sink.

The US is planning it cleverly, while the Russian oligarchy with Putin as their would-be sanitized, blank face, tries hard to present its lackeyism as a stroke of genius.

So, the US and its allies (here led by Turkey) hold their front in keeping the Kurds out of the Geneva talks. At the same time, the US is prodding the Kurds to declare federalization on their own--separately and thus unilaterally, which will allow Turkey and others to dismiss or undo this step of the Kurds at any moment should the opportunity or need arise. At the same time, the Kurdish unilateral step is adding a further weight to plan A was always plan B strategy of the whole regime change--the breakup and destruction of Syria or destruction of Syria and her breakup.

At the same time, all the outside players are doing their best not to let the Kurds interfere with the Geneva "talks" the goal of which is already prescribed by the US and Russia beforehand--to form a new Syrian government. See UN SC 2254.

While Putin is pulling out of Syria (of course, only most of his forces and the main part, which, to sycophants, means only "partially")--"no, you were wrong, my dear, I did not promise you a marriage, just a temporary insertion," the Russian government under Putin put almost $5 billion into the US bonds in January. That's how the universe works--a pull-out here is balanced off with going in somewhere else. At the same time, Russia is trying to raise $3 billion through its own bonds, which all major Western banks declared to boycott. 

The text in the bubbles in the pic above:
Putin: "I took Taurus, I took Donbass, I took Syria, I was taking the budget of the Russian Federation 16 times, what else is there for me to take?" Lavrov: "You should also take Gay-Europe, the Outrageous One. For they decided not to let us any more into their lair of Hell. But we still have there our capital, families, and children." Shoigu: "Oh, our Highest Sunshine! Pindostan must be taken too. For due to their sanctions, we, boyars, your guardsmen, can no longer make a decent living. Not like before when all was great!" 

Иван Ушенин: В итоге:
В чём были настоящие причины и цели участия России в войне в Сирии?
То что это не было уничтожение ИГИЛ* — это уже очевидно.
В частности раз Путин заявил, что задачи выполнены.
Для меня же важно другое.
Кремлёвская антинародная олигархическая власть в очередной раз обманула своё населения, вбивая кувалдами пропаганды все эти месяцы через свои СМИ про главную задачу данной военной операции — уничтожение ИГИЛ*.
Это была наглая ложь.
И прискорбно, что большинство россиян не возмущены данной ложью, которую они сами в частности распространяли как попугаи, а с готовностью приняли очередные многочисленные «объяснения», вылившиеся на них через канализационные трубы СМИ.
А для меня олигархический режим доказал в очередной раз, что это мягко говоря реальные авантюристы, которые считает российский народ бездумной биомассой, которой можно втирать безответственно и абсолютно всё, что угодно, ради своих корыстных личных и классовых интересов.
(* ИГИЛ, Джебхат-ан-Нусру — организации запрещены в РФ)
Автор: Иван Ушенин
Mary Shabbiha Woodward
Великий Владимир Бюджетнороссийский, Таврический, Донбасский, Сирийский и …
Военная операция России в Сирии проводится ВКС РФ с 30 сентября 2015 года.
Одной из главных задач которой — борьба с международным терроризмом, в первую очередь уничтожение ИГИЛ*, о чём нам вдалбливали все эти месяцы российские тоталитарные СМИ.
В частности 3 февраля 2016 года министр иностранных дел РФ Лавров официально заявил:
«Российские авиаудары не будут прекращены, пока мы реально не победим террористические организации: ИГИЛ*, Джебхат-ан-Нусру* и подобные им. Не вижу оснований для прекращения этих ударов.» (Источник)
Всё что официально заявляет Лавров, это официальная позиция Кремля, если кто не в курсе.
14 марта 2016 года на исторической встрече Лаврова и Шойгу с Путиным, Шойгу в частности отчитался: «На территории Сирии уничтожено более 2000 бандитов, выходцев из России, в том числе 17 полевых командиров…» (Источник)
Сколько уничтожено вообще террористов Шойгу умолчал, хотя странно, почему???
И в частности вопрос, как узнали, что 2000 уничтоженных бандитов — россияне? По паспорту в карманах трупов или по отпечаткам пальцев? Но учитывая массовые бомбардировки, от многих из них не осталось наверное вообще тел.
Кстати 11 декабря 2015 года Шойгу заявлял о том, что численность террористов в этом регионе составляет около 60 тысяч человек.(Источник)
В итоге Путин на этой встрече подвёл черту: «Считаю, что задачи поставленные перед Минобороны, в целом выполнены. Поэтому приказываю с завтрашнего дня начать вывод основной части нашей воинской группировки из Сирии»
В итоге:
В чём были настоящие причины и цели участия России в войне в Сирии мы не знаем и не известно когда узнаем.
То что это не было уничтожение ИГИЛ* — это уже очевидно.
В частности раз Путин заявил, что задачи выполнены.
Для меня же важно другое.
Кремлёвская антинародная олигархическая власть в очередной раз обманула своё населения, вбивая кувалдами пропаганды все эти месяцы через свои СМИ про главную задачу данной военной операции — уничтожение ИГИЛ*.
Это была наглая ложь.
И прискорбно, что большинство россиян не возмущены данной ложью, которую они сами в частности распространяли как попугаи, а с готовностью приняли очередные многочисленные «объяснения», вылившиеся на них через канализационные трубы СМИ.
А для меня олигархический режим доказал в очередной раз, что это мягко говоря реальные авантюристы, которые считает российский народ бездумной биомассой, которой можно втирать безответственно и абсолютно всё, что угодно, ради своих корыстных личных и классовых интересов.
(* ИГИЛ, Джебхат-ан-Нусру — организации запрещены в РФ)
Автор: Иван Ушенин

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