Thursday, February 12, 2015

Minsk 2.0: Putin Fulfilled His Purpose

Minsk 2.0 (just like Minsk 1.0) de iure (as opposed to de facto for now) buried the existence not only of Novorossiya, but also of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics and effectively makes their referendums nil and void.

It re-establishes Kiev's sovereignty and stipulates that Kiev ought to re-establish full control over all the borders with Russia by the end of 2015. According to Poroshenko, no federalization or autonomy is part of Minsk 2.0. Some sort of "special status" can mean many things, that is to say, very little, if anything. The status of these regions is to be prescribed by a law made by Kiev, merely with some possible coordination or input from the regions. Nothing more.

The crux of the dictate in the form of the agreement is point 10 of the "Set of Measures for the Implementation [of Minsk 1.0]": "Withdrawal of all foreign armed units, military equipment, as well as mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under the supervision of the OSCE. The disarmament of all illegal groups." The text makes the Army of Novorosssiya an illegal group that needs to be "withdrawn." Moreover, the use of the word "withdrawn" as opposed, for example, disbanded or removed, implies that these "illegal groups" are be withdrawn from the territory of Ukraine, but, once outside of Ukraine, they don't need to be disbanded or dissolved--all this helps to paint these forces as Russia's forces--one of the crucial points which seem to have eluded Russian diplomats.

It is also helpful to compare the text with the attempted positive spin put on it by RT.

Here is the text itself, point 4:

"On the first day following the withdrawal to begin a dialogue with respect to the modalities of the local elections in accordance with Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine “On the temporary order of local government in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions,” as well as with respect to the future operation of these areas on the basis of the Law.
Immediately, and not later than 30 days from the date of signing of this document, to adopt a resolution of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine with the specification of the territory covered by the special regime provided for in the Law of Ukraine “On the temporary order of local government in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions”, [such territory] to be based on the line set out in the Minsk Memorandum of September 19, 2014."

Compare with RT's "Point 4":

4. "Kiev and the rebels will negotiate the terms for future local elections in the rebel-held areas, which would bring them back into Ukraine’s legal framework. Kiev would adopt legislation on self-governance that would be acceptable for the self-proclaimed republics."

Telling is also (with others) the difference between what the text actually says and how RT presents it in Point 11.

Point 11 as it is:

"Passing of a constitutional reform in Ukraine with the entry into force by the end of 2015 of a new constitution, which shall incorporate decentralization as a key element (taking into account the characteristics of certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions, to be agreed upon with the representatives of these areas), as well as, before the end of 2015, adoption of permanent legislation with respect to the special status of certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions in accordance with the measures specified in Note [1]"

Note 1: .... participation of local governments in the appointment of the heads of prosecutorial bodies and the courts in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions; ... establishment of units of People’s Militia by order of local councils with the goal of maintaining public order in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions;
the powers of local council deputies and officers elected in early elections, to be set by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine in accordance with this law, may not be terminated."

RT's "Point 11": "Keiv will implement comprehensive constitutional reform by the end of the year, which would decentralize the Ukrainian political system and give privileges to Donetsk and Lugansk. The privileges include language self-determination, the freedom to appoint prosecutors and judges, and to establish economic ties with Russia."

In his brief press conference after the talks, Putin confirmed that Kiev categorically refused as a matter of principle to have any direct talks with the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, limiting itself to talks to Russia with the help of its allies, Germany and France.

Importantly, in his statement for the press, Putin pointed out that, at this very moment, the most critical issue is the fate of the encircled 6,000-8,0000 Kiev troops in the Debaltzevo cauldron. Poroshenko denies that they are encircled. The Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics demand their surrender and disarmament.

According to Oleg Tzarev, the best that may be said about Minsk 2.0 in favor of Putin and Russia is that 1) "Russia has moved out of the frame of the conflict; It will be now hard to present the war in the eyes of Western society as a conflict between Ukraine and Russia;" (Россия вышла за рамки конфликта. Войну в глазах западного общества теперь очень сложно представить как войну Украины и России.), and that 2) Russia is now "playing on the same team within the European concert" (страна выступает в одной команде с европейским концертом).

Putin as the chess champion he is played his moved brilliantly. He foresaw a long time ago what the junta and its Western allies would want to see Russia committed to and, planning his agreement with it several moves ahead, he pulled off precisely that.

It would be also fitting if Moscow now invites Poroshenko and the representatives of the Kiev regime's troops for the Victory parade at the Red Square on May 9. It would not even be amiss if the celebration of Victory Day were then renamed in the way in which Kiev wants to see it as a Day of "Reconciliation." As Oleg Tzarev put it, Russia is "on the same team" and this partnership of the elites has been reconfirmed.

Back in the 1990s, Brzezinski identified Ukraine as the US designated "bridgehead" into Eurasia or the Eurasian Balkans which is to lead to Russia's disintegration. And since the masters of the universe are also dabbing into occult, it was not without a bit of irony or inside joke that they chose as a lever for securing this bridgehead to use not only an updated tactic already tried with Slobodan Milosevic, but they also called the tool to achieve "the Normandy format" or the "Normandy group" called so after the US-led formation of a bridgehead into Europe in June of 1944 and the celebration of this feat last year where Putin was made to recognize the legitimacy of Poroshenko and the Nazi junta, which he represents. The New "Normandy" was, moreover, completed in Belarus where the unconstitutional dissolution of the Soviet Union was signed on December 25, 1991 by a troika of then still formally Soviet leaders, who were in fact by virtue of the very act fully anti-Soviet already.

If Minsk 2.0 were to be Minsk 1.0, but not just somewhat repackaged, but at this time also enforced and implemented, then the Kremlin (taking a cue from Starikov, for example) would have to declare Russian patriots, including Strelkov, to be "the outlaw party of war" and change the regime in Russia to make it compatible with (the restored "partnership" with) the Kiev junta (and the Empire), possibly in the spirit of Ivan Ilyin's right-wing "conservatism." 

The originally Norman invasion of England in 1066 (thus going in the opposite direction than that of 1944) was also important in that respect that it brought feudalism (or a new, "modern" form of serfdom or slavery) to the country.

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