Thursday, February 12, 2015

Minsk 2.0: Post Scriptum

1. So far the fighting in the Debaltzevo cauldron continues unabated. The Ukrainian troops are encircled there despite Poroshenko's denials, but Kiev is trying to break the encirclement.
2. The Empire and the Kiev regime are putting much of hope into imposing on the breakaway republics "new local elections" which would change the republics' leadership and replace it with the junta's stooges or effective quislings.
3. For it is apparently under the new local "leadership" that the stipulated demilitarization and disarmament of the republics is to be carried out (Point 10: "Withdrawal of all foreign armed units, military equipment, as well as mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under the supervision of the OSCE. The disarmament of all illegal groups.") The date of these new elections--for Kiev does not recognize the current republics or their leadership as legitimate--is, however, not defined except that all the required changes are to be achieved before the end of 2015.
4. Will the junta be willing to stop shelling Donetsk, Gorlovka and other cities, as implied under the stipulated withdrawal of heavy weapons by March 1?

The disbanding and disarming of the NAF, effectively described by Minsk 2.0 as "an illegal group" (for, according to Minsk 2.0, even the republics have no legal or political standing or status) can be hypothetically achieved in these ways:
1. voluntary self-disarming and dissolution under the current leadership and command
2. disarming and demilitarization after the "new local elections" (option evidently favored by Kiev and the West)
3. enforced and carried out by Russia
4. or by the Kiev regime or/and Kiev's allied enforcer (i.e., foreign de facto invasion)

Minsk 2.0 basically requires from Kiev only to behave nicely at least initially and to refrain from military actions, that is, to cease their pursuit at least temporarily.

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