Tuesday, August 11, 2020

Belarus: The Context and the Paralles of the new Maidan

Belarus has been politically and geopolitically a sort of skanzen and anomaly, balancing between and playing off Putin's para-fascist oligarchic mafia, even Ukraine's anti-Russian neo-Banderites and the West. The only place still honoring the vestiges and few last (though sufficiently or safely already sterilized) symbols of the Soviet Union.

Under Lukashenko, Belarus was preserving in a reduced form a sort of socialist capitalism or bureaucratic top-down authoritarianism that avoided till now the jaws of scorch-earth mafia-led privatization-cum-dispossession-destruction and which Lukashenko, however, founded only on his own person and inertia, hoping that he will rule long enough to make his grandson (still only 15-year old) one day a new czar Kolya.


Gaius, Lucius et Kolya | res gerendae

Alexander Lukashenko - Alchetron, The Free Social Encyclopedia

While Lukashenko's stripped-down bland of Soviet (policing) bureaucracy saved Belarus from openly criminal excesses elsewhere in Eastern Europe and while it has showed till now a mixture of Soviet-like conservatism and pragmatic moderation, the system has always lacked a serious developmental potential and has been running against the constraints of Lukashenko's personal rule combined with the KGB-style parochial nursery-like oversight and insufficiently educated apparatchiks (which includes Lukashenko himself). The fact that till now Belarus was also sitting in one of the few remaining dead alleys of Europe was a factor that made this anomaly possible in the first place.

And just like Ceausescu, who played a similar role in the 1970s, trying to be a good buddy with all and an ally of none,
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Lukashenko has ended up alone surrounded by wolves and with the nation tired of the same, wanting to move forward--and without him.

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Moreover, during the Ukrainian Maidan, Putin also worked closely and collaborated with Germany and France and, in accordance with their demands, persuaded Yanukovych to surrender to the anti-Russian faction of oligarchs. 

Not only Putin dispatched on the eve of the elections in Belarus a unit of trained snipers, assassins, from the mercenary battalion directly controlled by the Kremlin, 33 members of which were arrested by the Belarus authorities, but, as the crisis in Belarus flared up, Putin immediately increased the scope and intensity of the coordination of his actions and policies with the West just as he was doing during the Maidan in Ukraine or during the whole war in Syria.


The current crisis in Belarus is burying for good not only the still born and completely vacuous sham of the Union State with Putin's Russia, but also any further political and cultural alliance between these two and once so close Slavic nations.

The profound, but inevitable irony lies in the fact that the West is now enlisting help of Putin just as it did during the Maidan in Kiev in early 2014 to carry out yet another regime change even though Putin falsified his own elections as much, if not more, as Lukashenko.

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